China’s decision to stop importing recovered paper (often known as waste paper) will have major repercussions for countries including the UK and also raises questions as to where China will now source fibre, according to a report from consultants AFRY.
The consultancy, which includes the former Poyry consulting business, has released a report, ‘The Evolving Demand for Recovered Paper in China’. This examines developments in Chinese policy and regulation and also looks at imports and how China’s internal recovered paper collection is developing as well as looking at future demand.
Chinese authorities are keen to see more recycling of domestic material
Director David Powlson and vice president, Saara Soderberg, headed up the report team which explained that China’s policy for limiting imported recovered materials began in 2013, and has now reached a level of “nil RCP imports at the start of 2021”.
Demand
The year 2005 is given as when proportionately, demand for recovered paper peaked in China to 50% of what was used by the country’s mills. By 2019 imported material had fallen to 18% of what was needed.
The importance of the UK as an exporter is highlighted by the study, with the UK the second largest exporter to China – after the US – for many years, although Japan crept ahead of the UK in 2019.
One of the big questions around the Chinese recovered paper market is its internal recovery rate. AFRY considers that the ‘apparent’ recovery rate reached 49% in 2019 but it believes that the real recovery rate is much higher, at around 85%, with collection of packaging grades in particular being even higher in coastal areas and large cities.
Containerboard
Chinese Customs in Guangshou inspecting mixed paper after stricter import restrictions were introduced in 2018
The consultants say that while demand for new containerboard was held back by the pandemic in 2020, with expected recovery in 2021, robust growth is forecast again. They predict that “fibre demand in China will need to increasingly rely on domestic recovered paper collection and imported market pulp – including unbleached recycled pulp.”
AFRY see a substantial shortfall of fibre in 2021 compared to demand in China, and remark how there is uncertainty about how this gap will be filled. Suggested solutions include that pulp will have a big part to play as will Chinese investments overseas, including recycled pulp facilities in North America and Europe. Volumes of imported virgin pulp will also be important.
For the full report: Contact: www.AFRY.com
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Source: letsrecycle.com Waste Managment
